FIFA World Cup 2026 group predictions: Netherlands, France and Mexico could miss top spot as surprise teams emerge in the upcoming football fiesta

The FIFA World Cup 2026 is set to be the biggest edition in the tournament's history, with 48 teams competing across the United States, Mexico and Canada. While traditional powers such as Brazil, Argentina, France and England are expected to make deep runs, every World Cup produces its share of surprises.


From Croatia reaching the 2018 final to Morocco's historic semi-final run in 2022, football's biggest stage rarely follows the script. Looking at recent form, qualifying campaigns and squad strength, here are our predictions for the top two teams in every group.

Most fans expect hosts Mexico to win Group A, but Czechia have quietly become one of Europe's most organised sides. They finished their qualification campaign strongly and boast experienced leaders such as Patrik Schick and Tomáš Souček. Schick has consistently delivered goals at major tournaments, while Souček remains one of Europe's most effective box-to-box midfielders.

South Korea also enter the tournament with momentum after finishing unbeaten in Asian qualifying. They have qualified for every World Cup since 1986, a remarkable streak that highlights their consistency. With players spread across Europe's top leagues, they look capable of edging Mexico for a top-two finish.

• Prediction: Czechia (1st), South Korea (2nd)

Switzerland have become one of international football's most reliable tournament teams. They have reached the knockout stages in four of the last five World Cups and have regularly challenged Europe's elite at major competitions.


Bosnia and Herzegovina are our surprise pick for second place. The Balkan side showed resilience throughout qualifying and possess enough attacking quality to trouble any defence in the group. Canada's home-continent advantage should help, but Bosnia's experience could prove decisive.

• Prediction: Switzerland (1st), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2nd)

Brazil remain one of the favourites to lift the trophy and should have little trouble topping Group C. Their squad is stacked with elite talent across every position, and they finished among South America's strongest sides during qualification.

The real battle is for second place. Morocco have earned the benefit of the doubt after becoming the first African nation to reach a World Cup semi-final in 2022. That run was no fluke. They have continued to perform well in major competitions and possess a defensive structure capable of frustrating almost any opponent.

• Prediction: Brazil (1st), Morocco (2nd)

Türkiye could be one of the dark horses of the tournament. Their squad is packed with young talent playing in Europe's biggest leagues, and they have shown significant improvement over the past two years.

The United States should benefit from playing on home soil, but their performances against top opposition have remained inconsistent. Türkiye's balanced squad and tactical discipline give them a slight edge in the race for first place.

• Prediction: Türkiye (1st), United States (2nd)

Germany look revitalised after several disappointing tournaments earlier in the decade. Their attacking depth and tournament experience make them clear favourites to win the group.

Ecuador continue to be one of South America's most underrated teams. They conceded very few goals during qualification and have built a reputation for being difficult to break down. Their athleticism and defensive organisation should be enough to secure second place ahead of Ivory Coast.

• Prediction: Germany (1st), Ecuador (2nd)

This is the prediction that will raise the most eyebrows. The Netherlands possess more star power than anyone else in the group, but recent tournaments have shown a recurring problem. Despite their talent, they have struggled to consistently convert possession and chances into dominant performances against well-organised opponents.

Sweden have a long history of exceeding expectations at major tournaments. They reached the World Cup quarter-finals in 2018 and continue to thrive through discipline and structure rather than individual brilliance.


Japan, meanwhile, have become giant-killers on football's biggest stage. They defeated both Germany and Spain at the 2022 World Cup and have consistently produced players for Europe's top leagues. Their technical quality and tactical flexibility could once again cause problems for traditional powers. The Dutch may still qualify as one of the best third-placed teams, but we are backing Sweden and Japan to finish above them.

• Prediction: Sweden (1st), Japan (2nd)

Belgium's golden generation may be fading, but they still possess one of the strongest squads in the group. Their blend of experience and emerging talent should be enough to secure top spot.

Egypt are our choice for second place. The Pharaohs remain one of Africa's most successful football nations and have developed a balanced squad capable of competing beyond the group stage.

• Prediction: Belgium (1st), Egypt (2nd)

Many analysts consider this one of the toughest groups in the competition. Spain arrive as reigning European champions and continue to dominate possession better than almost any national team in world football. Their young core has already shown it can perform under pressure.


Uruguay combine exciting young players with experienced veterans and remain one of South America's most dangerous tournament teams. Their pedigree gives them the edge over Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde.

• Prediction: Spain (1st), Uruguay (2nd)

France are among the favourites to win the World Cup, but Norway could spring one of the biggest surprises of the group stage. Erling Haaland has transformed Norway's attack, while Martin Ødegaard has developed into one of Europe's best creative midfielders.

The combination of world-class attacking talent and growing tournament experience could help Norway finish above France in a tightly contested group.

• Prediction: Norway (1st), France (2nd)

Defending world champions Argentina remain one of the most complete teams in international football. Their blend of experience, technical quality and winning mentality should see them comfortably finish first.

Algeria are our pick to join them. The North African side have consistently performed well against strong opposition and possess enough attacking quality to edge Austria in the battle for second place.

• Prediction: Argentina (1st), Algeria (2nd)

Every World Cup produces a breakthrough nation, and Uzbekistan could be this year's story. Uzbek football has improved dramatically over the past decade, with significant investment in youth development finally paying off. Their qualification campaign showcased a disciplined and fearless side capable of competing against more established nations.


Portugal remain overwhelming favourites to win the group and the World Cup 2026 thanks to their depth and wealth of attacking options.

• Prediction: Portugal (1st), Uzbekistan (2nd)

England enter the tournament with arguably the deepest squad in world football. From attack to defence, they possess elite talent across the pitch and should finish first.

Croatia have made a habit of outperforming expectations. They reached the World Cup final in 2018 and finished third in 2022, proving that experience and tactical intelligence can compensate for a smaller player pool. Until Croatia stop delivering on football's biggest stage, it is difficult to bet against them.

• Prediction: England (1st), Croatia (2nd)

• Group A: Czechia
• Group B: Switzerland
• Group C: Brazil
• Group D: Türkiye
• Group E: Germany
• Group F: Sweden
• Group G: Belgium
• Group H: Spain
• Group I: Norway
• Group J: Argentina
• Group K: Portugal
• Group L: England

The most controversial calls are Sweden and Japan finishing above the Netherlands, Norway topping France, and Uzbekistan reaching the knockout rounds. But if recent World Cups have taught us anything, it is that reputations alone do not win football matches. The 2026 tournament could produce another set of shocks that nobody sees coming.