SpaceX IPO nears $1.77 trillion valuation: Can Elon Musk deliver another Tesla-style windfall for investors?

Five years after Elon Musk said long-term Tesla shareholders would receive priority access to a future space venture listing, some investors are now seeing that promise become reality. As SpaceX prepares for its highly anticipated public debut, attention is shifting to a broader question: can the company generate the kind of returns that made Tesla one of Wall Street’s most closely watched success stories?


The upcoming offering arrives at a time when Tesla shares have struggled through much of the year. Despite a strong rally in May that marked the stock’s best monthly performance since September 2025, Tesla has spent four of the first six months of the year in negative territory and is currently facing its weakest annual performance since 2022.

E*TRADE has informed eligible customers that it has created a supplemental allocation process tied to SpaceX’s initial public offering. Under the arrangement, investors who have held Tesla shares in their accounts for at least 10 years will receive additional consideration when applying for shares in the IPO.

The allocation program reflects commitments Musk made years ago regarding a future public offering. In 2021, while discussing the possibility of taking SpaceX public, Musk wrote on X that the company would wait until Starlink revenue became reasonably predictable. At the time, he added that he would do his best to give long-term Tesla shareholders preference.

A year earlier, Musk had also expressed support for retail investors, stating that small investors would receive top priority when SpaceX eventually went public.


Many retail investors now view the allocation process as the fulfillment of those earlier commitments.

SpaceX plans to offer 555.6 million shares priced at $135 each. The transaction is expected to raise $75 billion and value the company at approximately $1.77 trillion. On a fully diluted basis, the valuation could exceed $1.8 trillion.

The offering is scheduled to be priced on June 11, with trading expected to begin the following day.

Investor interest has reportedly been exceptionally strong. Following a JPMorgan-hosted roadshow, where Musk outlined plans to expand Starlink to more than 100,000 satellites and develop orbital AI infrastructure, analysts involved in the presentations reportedly received around 20 investor calls each day. That level of interest is above the 10 to 15 calls commonly associated with highly anticipated IPOs.

The company's filing presented an expansive vision of future growth. SpaceX identified a $28.5 trillion market opportunity across launch services, Starlink connectivity, direct-to-cell communications and AI infrastructure. The company described this as the "largest actionable total addressable market in human history."


The IPO has also revived discussion around one of Wall Street’s most closely followed themes: the value investors place on Elon Musk himself.

SpaceX disclosed that it may issue a significant amount of equity in future transactions. That disclosure reignited speculation regarding potential stock-based deals and even discussions among some market participants about a possible future combination involving Musk’s most valuable companies.

NYU professor Aswath Damodaran, often referred to as the "Dean of Valuation," estimated SpaceX’s equity value at between $1.25 trillion and $1.35 trillion, below the proposed IPO valuation.

Damodaran said the company appears "too richly priced" for his investment approach at current levels. However, he also noted that investors focused on momentum could view the opportunity differently.

According to Damodaran, he would not be surprised if the offering were priced at $1.8 trillion and experienced a rise in value either on the day of the IPO or in the weeks that followed.

He ultimately described SpaceX as a bet on both AI and Elon Musk, adding that some investors may look at Musk’s track record with Tesla and conclude that the odds remain favorable.


Alongside E*TRADE’s special process, Fidelity disclosed that up to 30% of the IPO has been reserved for retail investors.

That allocation is significantly higher than the 5% to 10% typically seen in major public offerings. Fidelity also lowered participation requirements, allowing customers with brokerage accounts containing as little as $2,000 to qualify.

Although SpaceX chose to take the parent company public rather than spin off Starlink, the larger retail allocation has strengthened the view among many investors that the company is honoring Musk’s earlier pledge to individual shareholders.

The excitement surrounding the IPO comes despite a recent decision from S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The index provider announced that it would make no changes to eligibility requirements for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 after reviewing policies related to newly listed megacap companies.

The decision is important because SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025. Under current rules, companies must generate positive GAAP earnings in both the latest quarter and the trailing four quarters to qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500.


Tesla influencer Alexandra Merz, known on X as TeslaBoomerMama, argued that the decision could ultimately place control over SpaceX’s path to index inclusion in Musk’s hands.

Merz stated that S&P would regret the decision and suggested that a future merger with Tesla could provide another route into the index.

According to her view, because Tesla is already part of the S&P 500, a stock-for-stock merger between the two companies could allow a combined business to inherit Tesla’s position in the benchmark index, potentially accelerating SpaceX’s inclusion.

However, no such transaction has been proposed by either company.

As SpaceX moves toward what could become the largest IPO in history, investors are evaluating more than the company’s financial prospects. The offering has become a test of whether the confidence many investors have previously placed in Elon Musk can once again translate into market success.